‘A DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH CERTAIN BY MARCH’22 END’

Says B. C. Bhartia, the national president of the traders' topmost organization in India, the CAIT

India Input December 1, 2021

0 5 minutes read

By Sanjay Ramakant Tiwari.

It’s post Diwali 2021. And way past the horrific Covid-19 second wave. Still there are speculations and fears about a possible third wave in the air. What lies ahead for the Indian markets, the consumers, the traders and the economy? B. C. Bhartia, a prominent trader activist and commentator heading the Confederation of All India Traders, the CAIT since 26 years, predicts new trend setting growth but also emphasizes the need to ensure basic norms are followed by all. Excerpts from his insights into the future :

In India, the festival season starts every year from Raksha Bandhan Poornima which is usually in August. The festivities continue till Diwali. This year in 2021, we have witnessed the post Covid economy in a vibrant mood till Diwali and beyond. Also, we witnessed some apprehension bordering towards hate for the Chinese products. Overall, the Indian markets saw a good demand for local and handicraft products which helped our artisans to earn better, post pandemic. We generally have the harvest period during and after Diwali. The rural economy witnesses a good amount of money flow during this period. Our rural areas become cash rich. This year, it was timely supported by the Prime Minister’s Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana that transferred money directly to the farmers’ accounts and helped them meet the daily expenses during the crucial cropping period. The net effect was whatever harvest money they had received during or post Diwali is still available with them.

In India, we don’t have the wedding season through out the year. Instead, we have some specified auspicious days marked for the weddings. The wedding season kickstarts from the day of ‘Gyaaras’, that is the eleventh day of Diwali. This obviously marks the beginning of the marriage ceremony related shopping season which lasts till 14th December and then after a month’s brief halt, resumes with the Sun’s Uttarayan on the Makar Sankranti that is the 14th January and goes till the mid of July. Thus, the indian markets have a full blown wedding season during these six months. Holiday vacations begin with the onset of summer in March and April. This is tourism season that goes on till June end and is closely followed by the education season.

I am predicting a robust growth spurred by a rising demand for the next six months. We shall definitely see a double digit growth in Indian economy by this financial year end in March 2022. Mark my words. This is going to be a total turning point. My analysis of the market trends and the subsequent conclusions are supported by the government’s estimates of the GST collection which, for the first time, went to rupees 1.35 lac crores in October 2021. Till then, it was lingering near 1.11 or 1.10 lac crores. The estimates for November were pegged at 1.50 lac crore rupees. This momentum in growth will continue, clearing the government’s fiscal deficit. The growth story in India, post Covid, is mainly from the rural areas. The main thrust on the demand is originating there. Even in urban pockets, the demand for traditional products is witnessing a steady rise. All this will boost the economy and I am positive on this.

But, there’s the next wave Omicron scare..

To this, Shri Bhartia replies, –
Is it not more scaremongering than reality..? I was reading what a South African doctor has observed. She said, – She was the first who raised alarm on the Omicron variant. But hardly anyone was hospitalised or put on Oxygen. There were some symptoms and the patients were treated. Whatever recent Covid deaths have happened are in the countries where double vaccination has not been achieved. In India its good that the government is taking precaution and it has reinforced the confidence among the general public. The life is back to normal. But, we must not forget the basics. The media should realise what is happening in reality and carefully refrain from panic creation, in both print and electronic media. There ought to be some regulation. We are not against factual reporting of news. It is always welcome. There must, however, be authentication from the authorities, the government. The news on sensitive issues like Covid must be from official sources and not merely speculative. The Union government has issued fantastic directives and guidelines. However, in the pandemic, the final decision rests with the local administration, the collector or the municipal Commissioner, due to the disaster management act. Why don’t we have a uniform protocol? I think, there can be a national policy which can be religiously implemented, sans any scope for corrupt practices, to fight such pandemics collectively.

Selective targetting

Shri Bhartia observes, – Traders have been needlessly targetted in some areas while it was ok in other areas in similar set of situations. Lets have a judicious and practical approach to follow the protocol by way of effecting rise in awareness. Instead of targetting the shopkeepers, why not see to it, that there are no social gatherings, no congregations, political, religious or otherwise. Let there be no selective targetting against the traders’.

Do’s & Dont’s

He points out some basic aspects that are needed to be understood and followed. Like,

Purchasing or shopping can not be an opportunity for collective outing, during such times. Make a plan for engaging in purchases once in a fortnight. The entire family is not needed to accompany for this. Outing for fun is not expected presently.
There should be a tight vigil to restrict gathering of more than five people in a group.
Use of masks, social media distancing and other protocols must be ensured.
Rather than being just a policy making agency, the governments should implement these protocols.
Traders should observe the necessary self discipline. They should ensure that, not a slightest of chance is given to the authorities to close down markets, shops and malls.
Traders should ensure that each and every member of his own family and staff have received double dose of vaccination.They should also ensure that these certificates are made visible by proper display at the commercial establishment.
The employees must wear masks and glows. Time to time sanitisation can not be compromised.
The staff members at a shop or a mall must be allowed a fifteen minute rest every two hours.
A big crowd can not be allowed entry at any establishment. You can not allow unrestricted or unplanned entries disproportionate to the size of the space available for shopping in the shop or mall. We calmly stand in queues at airports or even at the cinemas, don’t we? Then, let the customers do the same if they want to shop. Because, this is about discipline and more.
There can be trained security guards posted in each market to restrict, regulate and monitor the crowd. They can check and control the number of visitors at any given point of time and make the usual loiterers exit.
The drivers, rickshaw drivers etc should remain in their vehicle instead of crowding outside anywhere, forming groups and indulging in chatting. Let the passengers approach them. Many steps like these can do away with the unwanted crowds.
The rag pickers can be employed to quickly pick up unwanted material or garbage.
Chewing tobacco or pan and spitting in the open should be strictly dealt with by levying huge penalty. We tend to forget such unhygienic practices once we land abroad, don’t we?

These basic regulations are necessary to monitor our basic conduct in the society and have to be ensured. Similarly, local authorities should have satisfying answers ready, if there are not enough lavatories at market places or are kept unclean. The Corona pandemic can also be treated as a positive opportunity to ensure that the healthy, hygienic habits and the basic civic sense are reinforced and religiously followed.